February/March 2024 Kontos Kommentary
以下评论由ADESA Auctions首席经济学家Tom Kontos撰写.
Spring appears to have sprung in the wholesale market, 2月份平均价格环比又上涨了4%，3月份继续大幅上涨. Retail used vehicle and CPO sales also showed February increases.
Wholesale Market Trends*
根据ADESA美国分析服务公司每月对拍卖行业二手车价格的分析，按车型分类, wholesale prices in February averaged $14,312—up 4.0% compared to January, down 9.8% relative to February 2023, and up 31.5% versus pre-pandemic/February 2019, as shown below.
All model class segments showed month-over-month increases. 到目前为止，3月份的平均价格继续上涨，达到14美元,536 for the week ending March 17.
通过保持拍卖销售类型不变，可以进一步了解批发价格趋势, model-year age and mileage (the upper line in the following graph, which represents “Late-Model” units), as well as price trends for all vehicles sold (the lower line in the graph below).
As the graph shows, 今年到目前为止，“新车型”二手车的平均价格上涨速度快于整体价格. 这些新款汽车的平均价格在3月份继续上涨，达到了25美元,348 for the week ending March 17. These rapid price rises are indicative of interest by consumers, and therefore dealers, in more-affordable substitutes for high-priced new vehicles.
A spreadsheet 本节提供了按模型类划分的表格和图表的历史数据，以方便您跟踪这些趋势.
Retail Market Trends
下面的图表总结了ADESA US分析服务公司对NADA和Motor Intelligence数据的分析, respectively, 2月份的零售二手车和认证二手车销售数据.
As the figures show, 整体二手车零售销售的开局比过去五年中的任何一年都要慢, despite a modest year-on-year rise in February. 另一方面，年初至今的CPO销售额甚至与大流行前的水平相比也有所上升. 这再次表明，消费者对更实惠的替代品感兴趣，而不是昂贵的新车.
#Trendspotter
最近，大量的墨水不仅洒在电动汽车上，而且越来越多地洒在混合动力汽车上. I thought it timely, therefore, 分享我为监测这些替代燃料车型的拍卖价格和销量趋势而制作的几张图表. 第一张图表显示，这两种车型仍然只占拍卖总额的一小部分, but that share is growing. 这些销量趋势往往落后于新车销售趋势几年, 因此，观察这些模式如何随着时间的推移而变化将是一件有趣的事情.
第二张图表显示了两种车型的平均拍卖价格, 以及本报告早些时候显示的总拍卖平均价格. 电动汽车线显示了与我在我的文章中描述的特斯拉Model 3相同的市场价格趋势的总体回报 December and January Kontos Kommentary #Trendspotter. Average Hybrid vehicle prices, however, have gone from being below-market to above market, 虽然这可能部分是由于模型组合的变化.
I will continue to monitor these trends going forward. 我希望你发现这些信息有用，我欢迎你的反馈.